Trends, Forecasts and the Tariff Effect

Most of the time when you write editorials it goes into a large black hole in the universe. Occasionally, a friend comments — four months later. However, in ELEVATOR WORLD’s April issue, I mentioned tariffs and how they could hurt our industry. The comments poured in from around the elevator world. As I write this, U.S.-imposed tariffs have gone into effect on Canada, Mexico and China — and they have responded in kind. The trade war has begun. And now more products and countries are in the crosshairs, and retaliatory tariffs are being contemplated and implemented. There is uncertainty on all sides. Tariffs can hit us in many ways. We live and work in a global industry. Many OEMs have factories all over the world. Will they have to pay tariffs on escalators made in Germany coming into the U.S.? Many U.S. independent manufacturers use parts from China, India, Canada and Mexico. Tariffs will increase costs on both sides. Higher prices could threaten demand for new projects. Where and when will it end?

I read in The New York Times a column by my favorite pundit Tom Friedman, “No country in the world alone can make an iPhone.” It highlights how global most industry is and how we depend on one another. There are firms based in America. But there is no American economy in that isolated sense. Instead, there is a global web of commercial, manufacturing, services and trading “ecosystems,” explains Oxford University economist Eric Beinhocker.

Canada is, by far, the top supplier of both steel and aluminum to the U.S. Our good neighbor exported US$9.4 billion worth of aluminum to the U.S. in 2024, significantly ahead of the second-largest exporter, the European Union (EU), which exported US$1.5 billion. Canada also exported US$7.1 billion worth of steel last year, compared to US$7 billion from the EU. Yes, we need steel to build tall buildings and cars … and elevators. Tariffs are likely to prompt many developers to hit pause on projects. It could get lonely out there without our friends.

In this issue, we look at predictions and trends in the market. The Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH) presents its year-end wrap-up with a fascinating array of charts in CTBUH 2025 Trends & Forecasts. While upbeat, CTBUH notes that interest rates and supply chains have cast clouds on 2025. Yuval Valino-Rips, from Israel-based Rips Elevators Group, gives us an update on elevator inspections – some occurring during rocket strikes – in that country in Safety and Urgency: A Careful Balance. Eugene Gerden writes about how the decline in housing construction in Russia will soon cause a similar decline in elevator sales in Sharp Drop Ahead for Russian Elevator Manufacturers. 

Beyond the market trends, we focus on Doors and Door Operators: 

• Modelling Failure Detection of Lift Doors Through Sensor Fusion by Daan Smans. Emerging technologies improve the overall accuracy and reliability of detecting potential failures. 
• The Dahlstrom Metallic Door Co. (1925) by EW Correspondent Dr. Lee Gray. A milestone anniversary leads to the publishing of a catalog highlighting an expanded product line. 
• General-Purpose Door Drive by Lindsay Fletcher. This Product Spotlight looks at an evolved version of a previous door drive. 

Other Features this issue include an escalator job, Takimotokan Hot Spring Resort in Japan, which showcases the interesting process of embedded modernization escalators (EME), these done by Suzhou Hanson Elevator Co. Ltd. In Redefining Urban Living in a Repurposed Space submitted by Stannah, we explore Ocean House, once a high-rise office building that has been converted into luxury residential space. 

There is so much more in this issue, and I hope it will all be of interest to you. I welcome your comments and ideas. Reach out to me with them at ricia@elevatorworld.com.