Elevators 2030 — A Global View

Your author takes a wide ranging, deep look at macro trends and their implications for VT.

The symbiotic relationship between elevators and cities is well recognized and will likely endure for the foreseeable future. A question not asked — but that could have been — at the IEES: “What would the elevator industry be like two years from now?” The response to such a question would likely have been: “Not much would significantly change in two years.” Hindsight is 20/20, and we now know how incorrect such a response would have been. If we could be so wrong in such a short-term prediction, one wonders how inaccurate we could be in predicting nine years into the future. One cannot seriously make any predictions about the future of the elevator industry without considering the future of cities and urban development. This depends on many factors.

The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly altered the world in a remarkably short period of time. Many of these changes may well endure as the future unfolds. Difficult as it is for all but the highly specialized to anticipate catastrophic events such as pandemics, we may be aware of trends and considerations that predate the crisis. Some of these have been accelerated and intensified by the pandemic.

The root causes of such trends and considerations fall into the realms of technological, economic, environmental, social and political realities.

This article endeavors to explore the effects of the above and other influences on the path of the elevator industry as the decade unfolds. Suffice it to say that the industry will always be an essential part of the fabric of civilization and will continue to serve the needs for vertical transportation (VT) that facilitates the functioning of society. However, the industry will likely be different in the way it operates and the form of service it provides.

Technology Propels Change

The making of predictions has become more complicated in recent times. While the trend toward a more connected world has been taking place for some time, due to rapid information movement, the pace of change has been accelerating at an unprecedented rate. Rapid advances in technology as a whole, and information technology in particular, have propelled the enablers of change forward at breakneck speed. Access to the internet and mobile phones, as well as mass media employing the internet, television, radio and newspapers, have been instrumental in informing the public on an unprecedented scale. The rapid evolution of technology has, in part, fostered unrivaled economic growth over the last few decades that has forever changed the global economic and political spectrum. A case in point is the incredible rise of China from the end of the Cultural Revolution in 1976 to today.

Rapid advances in technology as a whole, and information technology in particular, have propelled the enablers of change forward at breakneck speed.

China has not been alone in the changing economic structure of the world. Indeed, many developing and emerging market economies have experienced rapid economic growth and have added to the overall growth of the world economy. Economic growth certainly has its benefits, in that it enables more people to have improved health care, nutrition, lifespans and a generally better quality of life. The rapid growth in economic activities has also had negative effects on the world. Pollutants and waste products, such as plastics, have accumulated in unimaginable quantities. The acceleration of climate change has reached threatening levels. Urgent action is needed on a global scale to address these issues.

The global economy has become interconnected and interdependent to an unprecedented extent. Global supply chains circle the planet. Interdisciplinary thinking and worldwide leveraging of intellectual resources is now common practice and will become more prevalent in the future. Innovation and implementation of developments is being re-imagined by global and local enterprises. There is a worldwide thrust toward modernization, where natural resources as the primary source of wealth and economic activity will be superseded by the capacity for innovation and the use of human talent to create the economic activities and wellbeing of society in the future.

The global economy has led to great amounts of international, as well as national, travel for business, educational, recreational and tourism purposes. This certainly has positive connotations, in that direct interaction of people with one another improves understanding and promotes harmony. However, as has been illustrated by the recent COVID-19 pandemic, interaction enables infectious viruses to spread rapidly. The pandemic has also illustrated that, despite the illness affecting the whole world, there has been inadequate global action to address the disease effectively. It has also shown how ill-prepared even some of the most advanced economies are in addressing pandemics. The lack of ability to address large-scale issues on a global basis is certainly cause for concern and uncertainty. Such issues as climate change and the handling of refugees are cases in point.

Issues that have been highlighted above, as well as many others, have an overall effect on the way of life and the social activity of people all over the world. No industry is immune to these major effects, and the elevator industry is certainly no exception. The possible influences of some of these factors on our industry is examined in this article, and some of the possible outcomes are elaborated.

Elevators and Cities: A Symbiotic Relationship

It is broadly acknowledged that elevators made possible the world’s cities as we know them. It is also true that cities transformed the elevator business from its humble beginnings into the multi-billion-dollar global industry it is today. The connection between elevators and cities is so strong that it behooves us to review the outlook for cities in order to predict the future of the elevator industry.

One of the important considerations on the future of cities is the increase over the last several years of people “working remotely.” Wide access to computers, expansion of the internet, accessibility to broadband and availability of mobile phones and smart devices have been game-changing. The advent of internet meeting and collaboration platforms, such as Skype, Microsoft Teams, Cisco WebEx, GoToMeeting, Zoom, etc., have made remote meetings and interaction possible. The trend toward this means of conducting business was already strong before the COVID-19 pandemic struck. The pandemic served to accelerate the use of these methods of interaction for multiple aspects of life. For business interaction, this constituted a rapid expansion of an existing method of operating. While the expansion was by no means seamless, it proved workable to some extent, albeit not ideal. It must be emphasized that meetings and communication, while vital, are by no means the only aspect of business. Provision of materials, food, fuel, equipment and components is the lifeblood of commerce, and had to continue to be throughout the pandemic. Moreover, essential services, such as health care, transportation, traffic control, law and order, financial services, power supply, water and other utilities, maintenance and repair of equipment, etc., continued throughout the pandemic.

Education is another area that has been transforming to some extent toward online delivery. This has generally occurred at the tertiary education level and in areas of specialization. It has never been seriously proposed that elementary school, middle school or high school education be provided remotely, online, in lieu of in-class learning in the traditional manner. The meeting and collaboration platforms mentioned above provided a vehicle to examine the concept of remote learning at all levels. The COVID-19 pandemic provided the rationale for testing the notion of remote learning on a massive scale. This method of learning was certainly helpful, under difficult circumstances, to students in high school, but of less benefit to younger children. This also put an additional burden on parents and guardians who were tasked with facilitating the educational delivery process and supervising young students. The consensus among school authorities is that remote learning is not a viable substitution for in-class learning. Not only is the content more difficult to deliver, but the retention rate is lower, and it is more difficult to assess whether or not the material has been understood and absorbed. Moreover, the school campus experience provides an opportunity for students to interact with each other and develop social skills. These are highly important for the future development of the individual, as well as society as a whole.

While elevators comprise a relatively small amount of the building material and utilize a small fraction (around 5%) of a typical building’s power consumption, the elevator industry has been proactive in eliminating “Materials of Concern” and reducing energy requirements.

Thousands of years of evolution have shaped the human species as social beings. Humans function more effectively in communities than as individuals, and indeed have survived and thrived as members of communities. There is a deep-seated yearning for human beings to be needed by other human beings. This provides a purpose in life and ensures the continued survival of the species. In the words of Aristotle: “Whosoever is delighted in solitude is either a wild beast or a god.” In a modern-day context, humans are most comfortable and productive when interacting with other humans in person and in close proximity. This is reflected in workplaces, educational institutions, clubs, spiritual gatherings, recreational activities and social events. This human trait has been well-recognized in the corporate world and, despite the availability of remote meeting and collaboration platforms, the preferred way of interacting is by direct, in-person contact. For true progress to be made in business or personal life, it is essential for trust to be developed between individuals. Trust is one of the most vital properties of any working relationship, and it speaks to the deepest emotions of our being. Personal contact not only builds trust, but also rapport, mutual understanding and empathy. There certainly is an important role for online meetings and interaction. This is most effective in following up and reviewing progress once trust, rapport and mutual understanding have been established.

Based on the need, desire and effectiveness of direct human contact, as well as the personal fulfillment it fosters, it is unlikely that it will be replaced by remote, online interaction. Moreover, a major aspect of communication is body language, hence, in-person contact is highly effective. This same reasoning applies to cities, which are, in effect, cauldrons of human interaction. Indeed, looking toward the future, cities are likely to continue to form and to grow. This, of course, augurs well for the elevator industry.

Internet Purchasing and the Future of Retail

The retail trade is an integral part of the lifeblood of cities. In fact, the “Central Business District” (CBD) of the modern city has become not only the commercial center, but also the center of intellectual, artistic and cultural activities. With the increasing use of the internet, there has been a migration of retail purchasing from traditional sources to online sales. The availability of rapid delivery services, such as couriers, has contributed to the reduction of sales volumes in retail outlets. Shopping malls have been seriously affected and many have actually closed. The COVID-19 pandemic has been a major aggravating factor, in that many customers who routinely shopped at retail outlets prior to the pandemic began shopping online to avoid contact with other people.

If brick-and-mortar retail continues to decline, this could have serious implications for cities and consequences for the elevator industry. This may, however, be a somewhat pessimistic view, as there already is a recognition that retail shopping outlets and shopping malls need to evolve to remain relevant. They will have to become nimbler in recognizing and responding to consumers’ needs. A combination of online and in-store shopping may be a way to accomplish this.

What is missing from the current retail model is the customer experience. As indicated in Section 2 above, direct human contact is a deep-seated need. In the case of shopping, contact with a person who can help a customer find the item he or she seeks and provide advice would enhance the shopping experience and build customer loyalty. Some retailers are studying the concept of “shopping by appointment” and “video chatting” to assist customers in finding the goods they desire and enhancing the experience. An important opportunity is enabled by the development of Augmented Reality Technology, in which smart eyewear can provide information while the shopper is viewing items of interest. This technology is also capable of changing colors, textures and geometry as the object is viewed. There are still many challenges ahead to find a happy balance between online and personal shopping, and it is likely that a blend will ultimately emerge.  

Environmental Issues

As indicated in the foregoing, major changes to the environment are occurring. Climate change is the most significant effect and is likely to have the most profound consequences for the world as a whole. While the climate has been changing gradually and naturally since the last ice age, the rate of change has accelerated since the start of the industrial revolution in 1760, and it is changing at a very rapid pace at present. The acceleration in the pace is due to the “greenhouse effect” caused by excessive quantities of various gases in the atmosphere.

In recognition that there is a major human element in accelerating climate change, there has been a lot of international action to understand and limit the causes of this existential threat. The Paris Climate Agreement (also known as the Paris Climate Accords) signed in 2016 is an example of international commitment to address climate change. The U.N. established the “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” (UNFCCC) in 1992. Since then, many conventions have been conducted under the auspices of this agency. While progress has been slow, and various signatories have reneged on commitments, some progress has been made. The main emphasis of the agreements has been to reduce reliance on fossil fuels for energy generation.

This is not a simple challenge, as renewable sources of energy such as solar, wind, tidal, hydro-electric and geothermal all have limitations, and energy demands in some advanced economies doubles every 10 years. Nuclear fission power does not contribute to greenhouse gases, but has challenges in nuclear waste disposal, as well as safety. Nuclear fusion power, which does not produce greenhouse gases, radiation or nuclear waste, is still in embryonic stages of development and will not be available as a power source for several decades. Nevertheless, there is an increasingly strong commitment by governments and private enterprise to improve energy efficiency, and to reduce fossil fuel consumption.

Initiatives to improve energy efficiency, as well as the ecofriendly design of buildings, has also been occurring for some time. This important issue is addressed below.

“Green Cities” and “Green Elevators”

Urban areas constitute some of the major sources of “Materials of Concern” (as defined in European Directive 2011/65/EU amendment 2017/2012) and energy consumption. Various initiatives have been embarked upon over the last few decades to encourage the use of ecofriendly materials and energy-efficient design. Ecofriendly materials include recyclable non-toxic substances. European Directive 2010/31/EU “Energy Performance of Buildings” requires EU member states to enforce energy efficiency of buildings. Several international standards have been established to evaluate and grade building designs to promote environmentally friendly structures. One such standard is “Leadership in Environmental Design” (LEED), which was developed in the U.S. by the Green Building Council. This standard is widely used throughout the U.S. and around the world. The standard assigns merit points to a building based on materials of construction as well as energy efficiency. The materials are assessed based on their lifecycle, ultimate disposal and impact on the environment.

“Building Research Establishment Environment Assessment Methodology” (BREEAM) is a British-developed standard for “green” building assessment that, broadly speaking, covers issues similar to those covered by LEED. Again, credit is given for features that lead to ecofriendly design over the life of the building and energy efficiency. BREEAM is widely used in the U.K. and other parts of the world.

A third important standard is “Comprehensive Assessment System for Built Environment Efficiency” (CASBEE). This system was developed in Japan and is mainly used in that country. It also covers the broad issues addressed by LEED and BREEAM.

Understandably, there is an initial cost premium to designing and erecting a “green” building. There is, however, a lower cost in general to running the building, which, over the lifespan of the building, can result in a significant cost savings. Moreover, some jurisdictions have been providing tax incentives based on LEED, BREEAM and CASBEE scores to motivate developers to design and construct “green” buildings. Momentum for “green” buildings is thus increasing around the world. It is anticipated in the future that many jurisdictions worldwide will make sustainable design compulsory if the current approach does not prove sufficient.

While elevators comprise a relatively small amount of the building material and utilize a small fraction (around 5%) of a typical building’s power consumption, the elevator industry has been proactive in eliminating “Materials of Concern” and reducing energy requirements.

The connection between elevator systems and the internet has become very strong and will become even stronger when remote interaction by off-site elevator service companies and building management authorities becomes more deeply entrenched.

Regarding elevator energy efficiency, several key trends have emerged. There has been an industrywide shift from geared elevator drives to more efficient gearless drives across high- and mid-rise duty ranges. Moreover, high efficiency, permanent magnet electric motors have become more prevalent. High efficiency regenerative drives based on variable voltage, variable frequency technology that recover energy and feed it back into the supply network are now state of the art. There is also a trend toward the application of gearless elevators in lieu of hydraulic elevators in the low-rise duty range. Hydraulic elevators are typically inefficient in that the energy used to raise the elevator car is dissipated as heat in the hydraulic fluid on descent of the cab. Lightweight cabs have become far more common in recent years for all types of elevators, and it is likely that this trend will continue in the future. This offers energy efficiency, as well as a reduction in material use, which enables reduced energy consumption during manufacture, processing, transportation, etc. Looking toward the future, additional efficiency opportunities will likely focus on friction and drag reduction. Sliding guides, where used, will likely be replaced by roller guides. Aerodynamic designs will probably be applied to elevator cabs, frames and counterweights. Moreover, hoistway designs of the future will likely consider airflow as a result of elevator motion. By optimizing elevator geometry, materials and hoistway architecture, drag may be reduced, thus improving overall efficiency. Another area of energy efficiency improvement is in the dispatch of elevators. Current algorithms are very effective in managing traffic flow, and destination-based dispatch systems have certainly constituted a significant improvement over traditional dispatch approaches. The inclusion of energy usage in dispatch optimization is certainly worth investigating and may result in improved overall efficiency.

Improvements in escalator and moving walk efficiency have occurred in recent years. When no passengers are present, decreasing the speed and stopping the escalator are ways that have been used to reduce energy consumption. These are likely to become more prevalent in the future. Regenerative drives for escalators have also emerged, and these are likely to also become the state of the art in the future. Other issues related to materials, etc., mentioned for elevators are also relevant to escalators and moving walks, where appropriate.

The elevator industry, as a whole, is on a path toward environmentally sustainable design and energy efficiency. This trend will very likely continue and accelerate as the future unfolds.

The Internet of Things and Remote Interaction

Remote interaction with elevators generally takes on several forms of contact: The elevator servicing company and building management with the elevator, and the elevator users with the elevator.

Remote Interaction

Contact between the elevator servicing company and the elevator has for several years been conducted using dedicated, secure phone lines, so as to avoid interference. The most common use of this connection was for remote diagnostics. This is particularly useful if an entrapment occurs and the passengers contact the help line using the in-car emergency phone. The remote diagnostic tool could provide information to a service mechanic assigned to rescue the passengers. The net effect is to reduce the time of entrapment. “Secure” phone links are not impregnable, and the information transmitted in this manner is very limited.

The internet provides a much more useful and effective method for performing remote diagnostics. An expert located anywhere can access the entire elevator control system, map the functions, and determine the status of all control signals and devices. An offsite expert can then provide the correction information to a mechanic who has been dispatched to the site. Once the problem is rectified, the expert can verify that the elevator is safe and ready to be put back into service.

By extension of this capability, it is possible to perform remote rescue and, in some cases, remote repairs. To facilitate these procedures, additional sensors would have to be installed on the elevator to monitor various devices and functions, such as elevator position, door positions, safeties, governor, brake and buffer status. Vital information can be provided using audio/visual and thermal cameras located at specific points. In effect, it is possible to carry out many of the tasks remotely that are currently executed on-site.

Remote monitoring of elevator performance and vital functions also provides the opportunity for preventive maintenance and fault prediction. Moreover, it is feasible to monitor elevator service and adjust assignment parameters for optimizing service and energy consumption.

As a further point, remote monitoring can be used to allow a stalled elevator to contact a call center automatically before the passengers become alarmed. A message to calm and reassure passengers could be played within the cab. It is also feasible to connect a person from the call center to the elevator car by video link, and this person could interact with the passengers until help arrives. This would be particularly helpful for passengers affected by cleithrophobia (fear of not being able to exit an enclosed space). 

User Interaction and Elevators

Interaction between users and elevators has traditionally been effected using push buttons, keyboards or magnetic/RFID/NFC cards. In recent years, smart device interaction has been used at some properties. Looking toward the future, this form of contact will become more prevalent, although traditional means of interaction will generally be available. It will be possible to call the elevator from a smart device that assigns a specific elevator and time. The elevator then takes the passenger to a preassigned destination. With smart devices and wearable technology, such as smart watches and smart eyeglasses, expected to operate on 5G networks, the possibilities for communication between passengers and elevators are greatly enhanced. Communication is also feasible using voice commands. Facial and voice recognition software can be used to allow access. The capability for touchless control and interaction has the added benefit of reducing transmission of contagions, thus reducing concerns among passengers in a post-pandemic world.

The elevator industry will, in itself, need to adapt to the changing world paradigms, and with foresight and dedication, will be up to the task. 

Information and Surveillance in the Elevator Car

The elevator journey, while generally brief, provides the opportunity for engaging with passengers. Elevator music and advertising, as well as news reports and the provision of other information, is not new. However, by applying audio/visual and thermal camera surveillance, direct feedback can be obtained regarding the entertainment and information provided. This information can be used to improve the passenger riding experience. Surveillance can also be used for live security monitoring, thus enhancing passenger comfort level. Information gathered by surveillance can also serve as a source of rich data signals that may, subject to ethical and regulatory considerations, be utilized for various purposes.

Cybersecurity

With increasing connection of elevators and escalators to the internet, the risk to critical systems and sensitive data from digital attacks is becoming more severe. In the last few years there have been numerous cases of elevators being hacked. This has resulted in elevators being taken out of service, taken for journeys up and down hoistways, disrupting traffic flow and annoying and scaring passengers. Elevator safety chains and critical safety devices are, for the most part, isolated from the internet and inaccessible for cyberattack. However, as remote interaction becomes more common, critical safety functions could become more vulnerable. Hackers are often adolescents who may not have an appreciation of any dangers their intervention can cause. Cybersecurity is, therefore, an important precaution against unauthorized intervention with elevator equipment.

Cybersecurity is the practice of shielding critical functions and systems from unauthorized intervention. Cybersecurity best practice entails multiple layers of protection using advanced analytical methods, including Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning, surveillance and monitoring of critical functions and systems. When any breaches are detected, the elevator would be set in a safe state and rendered inoperative until on-site direct human interaction by competent elevator personnel occurs.

The connection between elevator systems and the internet has become very strong and will become even stronger when remote interaction by off-site elevator service companies and building management authorities becomes more deeply entrenched. Cybersecurity is, thus, extremely important. In recognition of the indispensability of cybersecurity, various standards-development organizations have made the development of a pertinent standard a priority. Notable among these is ISO/TC 178 Lifts, Escalators and Moving Walks, and ASME A17 Elevators and Escalators Committee. The standards these organizations develop will provide a framework for addressing cybersecurity, but will not endorse any particular strategy or methodology.

Smart Cities

The major purpose of a smart city is to create an optimal balance considering civil operations, the efficient use of resources and economic growth while ensuring a high quality of life for residents by using smart technologies and data analysis. The degree of success is dependent on the manner in which technology is applied, and is not related to the amount of technology available to the city. Moreover, the overall widespread success of smart cities as the norm in society will depend to a large extent on the acceptance of the concept by the population as a whole.

The advantages of smart cities include the ability of city officials to access and analyze a large amount of data and obtain meaningful and useful information that can enhance the efficiency of the city. Connected transport systems have great potential to drastically improve efficiency throughout the city. By incorporating the elements of “green” buildings, “green” cities and energy and water management, a better use of natural resources is feasible. This has the effect of improving air quality and reducing the environmental footprint and general ecological impact. With access to high-speed internet services throughout the city, and the uniform availability of 5G, smart device access will improve the efficiency of communication and information. Smart technology will provide the means for monitoring infrastructure such as roads, bridges and rail structures. By applying computer-based simulation using predictive analytical tools and real-time input from sensors, preventive maintenance can be effectively planned and managed. Public safety is a very high priority in any community. Technologies, such as license plate recognition, shooting detectors, connected crime databases and re-imagined emergency call-in centers, can assist police and other first responders in addressing risks to public safety. As a further point, safe, clean, efficient cities with access to good education and health care can certainly be a magnet for new residents, businesses and, hence, economic growth.

While a compelling case can certainly be made in favor of smart cities, some real and perceived disadvantages need to be considered. An important example is the impact on personal privacy. The use of security cameras and intelligent systems connected through various spaces in the city makes it more difficult to maintain anonymity. Technologies like facial recognition drastically change the concept of personal privacy. Moreover, there is concern that the ability to track and centralize data greatly empowers those who have access to the information. There is concern that access to an individual’s data can impact liberty and manipulate public opinion. There is also a concern that by relying extensively on electronics and computer-based networks, cities become vulnerable to “computer crashes” and hacking by unauthorized parties. Public trust in cybersecurity has not yet been universally established.

The acceptance of the smart city concept will likely vary worldwide and, indeed, in different parts of the same country. By way of example, smart cities will likely be favorably embraced in China, which is strongly forward-looking in areas of high technology, and has the force of firm governmental control afforded by the leadership in Beijing. The U.S., on the other hand, certainly has highly developed technology capability vested in private enterprise and institutions, but is very divided politically on a vast array of issues. Personal freedom is a highly valued attribute in the U.S., and there is intense concern among millions of citizens of the government usurping the rights of the people. Smart cities will certainly emerge in the U.S., but these will be promoted by private enterprise and local governments in cities, rather than as a comprehensive federal government-led strategy. The various countries around the world will form their positions between these extremes. Suffice it to project that smart cities will certainly proceed, and smart, innovative elevator systems will be an essential part of them. Moreover, smart cities will provide a valuable venue to showcase safe, creative elevator innovations that are interconnected with transportation and accessibility needs of the community. Suitable EU Directives, international and local standards and methodologies, as well as international and local certification organizations for innovative product implementation, already exist, and can be leveraged to enhance smart cities, as well as innovative product installations in all markets.

Hundreds of cities around the world are planning additions and upgrades to embrace the smart city concept.

Social Values, Health and Safety

The building-transportation industry has established an impressive history of safety over many years that is particularly striking, considering the volume of passengers transported on a daily basis worldwide. The excellent record of safety is due in part to stringent codes and standards that have been developed and updated over the years and adopted and enforced broadly through much of the world.

Safety codes and standards have evolved over many years and reflect technological innovation, as well as societal values. Moreover, the diligence of the industry as a whole has led to a broad recognition that elevators are the safest means of transportation. Indeed, elevators are far safer for the user than staircases in buildings. The expectations of society are reflected in the broad media coverage of elevator accidents, while hundreds of thousands of road deaths go unreported.

The evolution of societal expectations regarding elevators is reflected in the improved performance of elevator safety functions over the years. Thus, today, it is expected that elevators will level accurately and there will be no tripping or slipping hazards on entry. It is also expected that passengers will not be injured by moving doors, and the ride will be smooth and gentle. For escalators, it is assumed there will be minimal entrapment risk of body parts between the skirt and the step or in the combplate, and that there will be no sudden stops that can destabilize passengers.

Passenger expectations and the technology to support them will continue to evolve with the passage of time. As an example, passengers will expect their approach to the elevator to be detected so that they are not contacted by moving doors. The technology has recently been developed for approaching object detection and door response, and it will likely become the norm in the next few years.

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought attention to health issues regarding passengers on elevators. Contactless interaction is certainly a step toward minimizing the transmission of viruses. Moreover, airborne transmission may be reduced by filtration of air in elevator cars using HEPA and ultra-fine particle filtration. Coupled with exposure to UV-C radiation in the filtration process, the air can be rendered safer to breathe. Thermal imaging cameras can be used to detect passengers with elevated temperatures so that further action can be taken if necessary. It is projected that such attention to health issues will become more prevalent in the future.

Future Outlook for the Elevator Industry

The COVID-19 pandemic has directly and indirectly impacted the elevator industry. The reduced use of elevators and escalators due to lockdowns and remote working directives has led to less equipment use and less need for service and maintenance. This ultimately led to layoffs of production, construction and service personnel. On the other hand, the disruption of supply chains, as manifested by the shortage of semiconductors for control equipment, has disrupted manufacturing and delayed customer orders. The explosion in demand for semiconductors — unexpectedly boosted during the COVID-19 pandemic for certain industries like smartphones and PCs — has caused a near-term supply shock triggering an unprecedented global shortage, which has affected all sectors, including the elevator industry.

It is projected that the elevator industry will recover completely as the COVID-19 pandemic recedes. The trend toward increasing urbanization of the world’s population will continue, and urban growth will be supported by elevator equipment. Urban growth has been most rapid, by far, in China. Indeed, China accounts for more than 70% of the world’s new elevator equipment annual installation. Urbanization has been increasing rapidly since the end of the Cultural Revolution and has been the major contributor to the swift rise in the Chinese GDP. It is anticipated that the trend will continue for many years to come and the great cities of Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou and Tianjin, as well as many others, will continue to grow. Moreover, many new cities will be formed — a large number of them smart cities.

India has also been urbanizing at an accelerated pace that  will also reflect a dramatic growth in the Indian GDP, with urban areas contributing around two-thirds of the country’s GDP. Large cities, such as Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai, will continue to grow. Many satellite cities are forming along railway lines that connect larger cities. These satellite cities provide relatively easy access to large-city CBDs but are uncrowded in themselves, thus offering an improved lifestyle for their residents.

Rapid urbanization is also taking place in such countries as Indonesia and Nigeria. All of this projected urbanization bodes well for the elevator industry in terms of demand for new products. As the installed base of elevator equipment increases, the demand for maintenance and service will correspondingly expand. Moreover, the demand for modernization of existing elevator equipment will rise, as old buildings try to compete with newer properties.

The construction of super-tall buildings (300 m and higher) is likely to continue through the decade. Most will be built in China and the Emirates. As for the world’s tallest building, it is likely the “Kingdom Tower” in Jeddah (1,000 m) will be completed. There is also a possibility that the “Oblisco Capitale” (1,000 m) will be constructed in Egypt. The “Mile High Building,” originally proposed by Frank Lloyd Wright in 1956, will not be on the skyline in this decade. There is a proposal for the “Sky-Mile Building” (1,600 m) to be built in Tokyo harbor by 2045, but this remains to be seen.

The elevator industry will be tasked to meet the many demands placed upon it in this decade and will undoubtedly embrace the challenges. The industry will adopt many of the changes that take place in the economy at large. However, despite its vintage, the industry has been shown to be nimble and to meet the challenges it has faced over the years.

One of the most difficult challenges relates to the availability of trained personnel. There are many aspects to the successful application of elevator equipment in a given building. Some facets of this process include specification, design, manufacture, construction, certification and permitting, inspection, maintenance and the use of the equipment by the public. In order to ensure safety and reliability, each of these functions must be carried out correctly and conscientiously. Education and training of the personnel involved in these activities is absolutely essential for the process to be workable as a whole, on a worldwide basis. This includes the education of the public, and children in particular, in the safe use of elevators and escalators.

The world is encountering an unprecedented array of critical issues simultaneously. Climate change, pollution, the COVID-19 pandemic, political tensions, economic issues and many others are impacting every aspect of life. Simultaneously, the internet, smart technology and mass media have provided unprecedented access to information and connectedness around the world. Under such circumstances it is difficult to make predictions about anything in the future. However, one aspect of human behavior that is deeply ingrained within us is the need for direct human-to-human contact. With all the changes that are possible, considering the problems humanity is facing, it is likely the social need for direct contact will endure. This aspect of what it means to be human will likely, more than anything else, shape the decisions we make in the future. Thus, urbanization is likely to continue and, consequently, the elevator industry will continue to meet the building-transportation needs of the future. The cities of the future will undoubtedly be more environmentally sustainable and safe. Smart cities, with interconnected transportation and information systems, will become more prevalent, and the elevator industry will be an important enabler in this evolution. The elevator industry will, in itself, need to adapt to the changing world paradigms and, with foresight and dedication, will be up to the task.