Indications of a Strong Market

Quarterly residential sales reach 15-year high.

submitted by JLL

The Indian residential market saw significant growth in Q1 2023 due to a combination of factors such as government policies, infrastructure growth and robust launches. Across the top seven cities of India, sales of residential units went up by 15% compared to the previous quarter and 20% compared to the same quarter last year, with more than 62,000 units sold. This marks the highest quarterly sales in the last 15 years, indicating increased consumer confidence. 

The premium segment, with apartments priced above INR1.5 crore, saw a 22% share in overall sales, reflecting a rising demand for bigger homes with good amenities and support infrastructure. To meet this demand, developers are increasingly focusing on premium and luxury housing, accounting for 27% of new launches.

However, it is pertinent to note that the INR50 to 75 lakh category still makes up one-fourth of the quarterly sales, but the share of affordable apartments priced below INR50 lakh in quarterly sales has decreased from 22% in Q1 2022 to 18% in Q1 2023. In contrast, the share of premium apartments priced above INR1.5 crore has increased from 18% to 22% in the same period.

Siva Krishnan, head – Residential Services, India, JLL, said: 

“In Q1 2023, the residential sector in India experienced significant growth and became a prominent contributor to the country’s economy. The recovery trend since last year has brought about a remarkable revival in the market with quarterly sales exceeding all historical peaks and continuing to grow. This growth has been fueled by a collective effort of all stakeholders, who swiftly adapted to changing consumer preferences. As branded developers stepped up their game and delivered relevant supply, both residential sales and launches reached unprecedented levels. The sales of over 62,000 units in the first quarter of this year signify a new era in the evolution of the residential market, with new benchmarks being set.”

Bengaluru is currently leading the market in terms of quarterly sales with a 21% share, closely followed by Mumbai with a 20.9% share. Pune is not far behind, as it contributed 19.4% of the quarterly sales. These three markets have also witnessed heightened activity in terms of new launches. Delhi National Capital Region (NCR) has also posted impressive sales numbers, primarily due to the robust launches by established developers, particularly in Gurgaon.

Ten months ago, it was easier for people to afford homes. Now, things are harder because interest rates for loans have gone up, and residential prices in India’s top seven cities have increased by 4-12% compared to last year. The rise in prices is seen across the spectrum of projects that have high demand and less ready-to-move inventory. Even new phases of existing housing projects are being launched at higher prices.

Dr. Samantak Das, chief economist and head research & REIS, India, JLL, said: 

“Despite a 250-basis point increase in the repo rate by the RBI [Reserve Bank of India] since May 2022, the residential sector has shown strong growth in the first quarter of 2023. Sales figures indicate that the affordable, mid, and premium segments are all performing well. Delhi NCR and Mumbai have seen the most sales for apartments priced over INR1.5 crore and have also had significant launches in the premium segment. This has led to record sales for some new launches by renowned developers.”

In the first quarter of 2023, an additional 7,800 residential units were sold in the plot and villa categories in the top seven cities. Most activity was concentrated in the southern cities of Bengaluru, Chennai and Hyderabad.

In the first quarter of 2023, 75,000 new residential units were launched, the highest number in more than a decade and close to the previous high of 82,757 units in 2012. The top seven cities in India saw an increase in new launches, with developers taking advantage of robust sales along with resilience in the Indian economy. Compared to the previous quarter, new launches in Q1 2023 increased by 19%. Mumbai had the most launches (22.5%), followed by Pune (21.8%) and Hyderabad (18.5%).

Interestingly, most of the new launches were in the premium segment, which includes apartments priced above INR1.50 crore, accounting for 27% of all launches. Developers have shifted their focus to the premium and luxury segments due to high demand for larger homes offering better lifestyles.

Unsold inventory across the seven cities increased by 2.8% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, as new launches outpaced sales. Mumbai, Bengaluru and Hyderabad account for 63% of the unsold stock. An assessment of years to sell (YTS) shows that the expected time to liquidate the stock has declined from 2.9 years in Q4 2022 to 2.7 years in Q1 2022, an indication of robust sales growth.

The housing market in India is growing and changing due to changes in supply and demand. However, the repo rate increase since May 2022 has led to higher home loan interest rates, which may impact sales in the future. Additionally, global economic instability may also affect homebuyers in the short term. Despite this, we are hopeful about the market’s growth and expect the economy to improve in the long term. Infrastructure improvements are also creating new opportunities for growth across India’s top seven cities.